Transportation Electrification might be the most interconnected puzzle in the energy transition from the perspective of the different players that are involved. Automotive OEMs - incumbents and startups - provide the vehicles and are working through the challenges of providing sufficient availability of those cars. Electric Utilities will need to build out renewable capacity and make-ready infrastructure to supply the fuel for these vehicles. And a variety of players - utilities, charging network operators, and diversifying oil & gas companies - are looking to build ubiquitous charging infrastructure so that EV charging becomes as easy and fast as filling up a car with gasoline. And that doesn't even include the companies that look to develop new services (e.g. fleet electrification, managed charging, customer education, etc.) on top of this foundation.

The Darcy research coverage focuses mostly on the technologies that enable electric utilities to overcome their challenges as new fuel providers and to unlock new revenue streams. But given the parallel progress that is needed for transportation electrification - it should not be seen as a chicken-and-egg situation - we will be highlighting the developments on the automotive development side in a series of articles. This article will provide an overview of the current EV market in the US and the commitments made to electrification by the incumbent automotive OEMS. Future articles will zoom in on 1) how (and if) automotive OEMs are planning to make good on those commitments, 2) what are the expectations for electric vehicle startups (e.g. Fisker and Nio), and 3) what are the implications of these developments for the electric grid.

CURRENT EV AVAILABILITY

The Department of Energy outlined in a note at the beginning of the year that there were 48 light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV and BEV) available in model year 2020, up from 42 in model year 2019. According to EPA data for Q1 2021, there are currently 19 battery electric vehicle models on the market in the US. In addition to that there are several more models planned for 2021. From the incumbent OEMs - so not including companies like Rivian or Lucid - there are another 9 BEVs expected before the end of the year. This includes high profile announcements such as the Ford F-150 Lightning as the first true test for electric pickup trucks.

Although there is a clear upwards trend in vehicle availability, it pales in comparison to other geographic markets. In Europe, there are expected to be around 150 full electric vehicles in showrooms by the end of the year. Providing more vehicle options is crucial for the market to further develop. You simply can't get the market share of electric vehicles up if there are not electric vehicles available. Vehicles in different classes, battery ranges, and price segments allow more people to transition to electric vehicles. So everything is needed: from small hatchbacks like the Nissan Leaf, to luxury sedans like the Genesis Electrified G80 and the previously mentioned Ford F-150 Lightning. With the average lifespan of a passenger car being 12 years, it is important to provide suitable electric options to as many people as fast as possible. It is also worth noting that Toyota - the most selling automotive OEM in the world - will not have an EV on the US market for the foreseeable future. And Mazda is also not be found on the list of announcements even though their existing ICE models have become increasingly popular.

2021 EV SALES THROUGH Q2

Hopefully, expanding the options of BEVs available will give a necessary boost to electric vehicle sales. Specifically the Ford F-150 - as the first electric pickup truck to market in a market where pickup trucks are a bigger segment than anywhere else in the world - will provide a real test for the US market readiness for electric vehicle growth. The market is currently clearly dominated by Tesla both in terms of EVs sold and EVs delivered (the numbers shown in the graph) during the first 2 quarters of the year.

Outside of Tesla, BEVs have only been a small part of total vehicle sales for the brands as can be seen on the graph on the right (note: Tesla was excluded as they are obviously 100% and limit visibility of the graph for the other brands). Data from Argonne National Labs shows a total of 49,621 plug-in vehicles (35,813 BEVs and 13,808 PHEVs) were sold during June in the United States. That makes a mere 3.83% of the total light-duty vehicle sales in that month. For comparison, the worldwide leaders for market shared of plugin vehicles (BEV + PHEV) for % of sales from January to May 2021 are:

• Norway: 82%
• Sweden: 37%
• Germany: 22%
• Netherlands: 18%
• France: 15%
• UK: 14%
• China: 10%

So if we think back to the General Motors "No Way Norway" commercial from earlier this year, the US has quiet a ways to go before it is catching up with Norway (unpopular opinion: this commercial is the only time ever I thought Will Ferrel was funny).

AUTOMOTIVE OEM COMMITMENTS TO ELECTRIFICATION

It will take a lot of work to get the automotive industry to where it needs to be to meet climate objectives. The table below shows the commitments that the top 10 automotive groups have - or have not - made to further vehicle electrification and broader carbon neutrality.

The first thing that catches the eye in this table is again the long path ahead with 4 out of 10 automotive groups currently not providing an all electric vehicle in the US market. Stellantis and Toyota are both committing to zero-to-many objective with the electric vehicle models they are aiming to provide by 2025. A very aggressive plan that also requires aggressive investments. I'm personally looking forward to seeing electrified options for some of these brands that are known for V8 Hemi engines and muscle cars. The company apparently is also planning to provide an electrification motto for each of it's 14 brands that range from those that seem a good fit (Jeep - "Zero Emission Freedom") to ridiculous (Dodge - "Tear up the streets…Not the planet). Toyota is looking to build on its long history of hybrid vehicles and is also still betting more on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles than any other OEM (more to follow on that in a different blog). But the positive note is that it appears that already by 2025 we will have a plethora of electric options available, which is exactly what we concluded was needed earlier in this article.

Another observation is that although there are some companies with solid commitments - led by Volvo's commitment to only sell pure electric vehicles by 2030 (not on the list as not in top 10 by global sales) - there is also still a lot of vagueness in statements. GM had a great marketing campaign but only "aspires" to eliminate tailpipe emissions from new sales by 2035. Mercedes states to go electric only by 2030 "where market conditions allow". Targets are good to give direction, but it would be great to see strong commitments like Volvo's from more OEMS. A similar note exists for the capital investment targets: these are often mentioned as being targeted at electrification "and supporting technologies" which can included a variety of software and process activities that are not directly related to electrification. Still, the commitments are sizeable.

Lastly it is good to see formal commitments to carbon neutrality in supply chains and manufacturing processes, regardless of if they are driven by government mandates or pro-actively set Science Based Targets.

I expect these ambitions will all evolve and upgraded as part of competition in the industry. The conclusion for now is that specifically the US market is far from where it should be, but that the OEMS are seeing the need and opportunity for improvement. The introduction of more EV models, and the speed of that introduction and market adoption, will tell a lot for years to come. In the next article we will highlight some of the actions that the OEMS are taking towards their goals (looking at startup investments, innovation project case studies, etc.). If you enjoy reading about these developments in the automotive industry, please give this article a Like or Comment with your thoughts, or what you'd like us to cover next.